Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1

Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Project Reference No. 3002844 Prepared for: Canberra Airport 27 June 2022 SMEC INTERNAL REF. 3002844 Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Through our specialist expertise, we deliver advanced infrastructure solutions for our clients and partners. Leveraging our 70-year history of delivering nation-building infrastructure, we provide technical expertise and advanced engineering services to resolve complex challenges. Through our network of global specialists collaborating with local partners, we connect you with the best teams and capabilities to deliver innovative and sustainable solutions. We’re redefining exceptional Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Document Control Document Type Runway 12 threshold displacement Study – Final Report Project Title Runway 12 threshold displacement Study Project Number 3002844 File Location X:\Projects\30028\3002844 Runway 12-30 threshold displacement\200 Detailed Design\215 Deliverables Revision Number 1.1 Revision History Revision No. Date Prepared By Reviewed By Approved for Issue By Draft 2.0 8/04/2022 Rene Vandenbroucke Mike Thompson Mike Thompson Draft 3.0 19/05/2022 Rene Vandenbroucke Mike Thompson Mike Thompson Draft 4.0 27/05/2022 Rene Vandenbroucke Mike Thompson Mike Thompson Final 1.0 10/06/2022 Rene Vandenbroucke Mike Thompson Mike Thompson Final 1.1 27/06/2022 Rene Vandenbroucke Mike Thompson Mike Thompson Issue Register Distribution List Date Issued Number of Copies Canberra Airport 19/05/2022 1 PDF Canberra Airport 27/05/2022 1 PDF Canberra Airport 10/06/2022 1 PDF Canberra Airport 8/07/2022 1 PDF SMEC Company Details Approved by Mike Thompson – Principal Engineer - Airports Address Level 9, 12 Moore Street, Canberra City ACT 2601 Phone +61 2 6234 1937 Email Mike.thompson@smec.com Website www.smec.com Signature The information within this document is and shall remain the property of Canberra Airport Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Important Notice This report is confidential and is provided solely for the purposes of a safety case investigation in relation to the potential displacement of the Runway 12 landing threshold at Canberra Airport. This report is provided pursuant to a Consultancy Agreement between SMEC Australia Pty Limited (“SMEC”) and Canberra Airport Pty Ltd, under which SMEC undertook to perform a specific and limited task for Canberra Airport Pty Ltd. This report is strictly limited to the matters stated in it and subject to the various assumptions, qualifications and limitations in it and does not apply by implication to other matters. SMEC makes no representation that the scope, assumptions, qualifications and exclusions set out in this report will be suitable or sufficient for other purposes nor that the content of the report covers all matters which you may regard as material for your purposes. This report must be read as a whole. The executive summary is not a substitute for this. Any subsequent report must be read in conjunction with this report. The report supersedes all previous draft or interim reports, whether written or presented orally, before the date of this report. This report has not and will not be updated for events or transactions occurring after the date of the report or any other matters which might have a material effect on its contents, or which come to light after the date of the report. SMEC is not obliged to inform you of any such event, transaction or matter nor to update the report for anything that occurs, or of which SMEC becomes aware, after the date of this report. Unless expressly agreed otherwise in writing, SMEC does not accept a duty of care or any other legal responsibility whatsoever in relation to this report, or any related enquiries, advice or other work, nor does SMEC make any representation in connection with this report, to any person other than Canberra Airport Pty Ltd. Any other person who receives a draft or a copy of this report (or any part of it) or discusses it (or any part of it) or any related matter with SMEC, does so on the basis that he or she acknowledges and accepts that he or she may not rely on this report nor on any related information or advice given by SMEC for any purpose whatsoever. Contents Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................4 2. Existing Runway 12/30 Dimensions ....................................................................................................................4 3. Existing Runway 12/30 Operations .....................................................................................................................5 3.1 Historical Use............................................................................................................................................ 5 3.1.1 Overall activity ......................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.2 Royal Australian Air Force VIP transport squadron ...................................................................8 3.1.3 Air Ambulance .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Future Use ................................................................................................................................................ 8 4. Analysis of displaced Runway 12 end .................................................................................................................8 5. Aircraft performance ..........................................................................................................................................9 5.1.1 Take-offs ..................................................................................................................................9 5.1.2 Landings .................................................................................................................................10 6. Impact on Runway 12/30 operations................................................................................................................10 6.1 Runway 12 landings ................................................................................................................................ 10 7. Required infrastructure and visual aids changes ..............................................................................................11 8. OLS implications on existing CA airport operations and obstacles/terrain. ......................................................11 9. Safety Case........................................................................................................................................................11 9.1 Risk Assessment Categories .................................................................................................................... 11 9.2 Risk Analysis ...........................................................................................................................................12 10. Conclusion and Safety Assessment Outcome ...................................................................................................12 11. Acronyms ..........................................................................................................................................................12 Appendices 1 OLS Obstacles 2 Risk Matrix Figures Figure 2–1: Taxiway locations ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 4–1: Runway distances......................................................................................................................................... 9 Tables Table 2–1: Runway distances (m) ...................................................................................................................................4 Table 2–2: Taxiway distances (m) from existing runway ends ......................................................................................... 5 Table 3–1: Aircraft types using Runway 12/30 ................................................................................................................ 6 Table 3–2: Aircraft movements from the 12-runway end ............................................................................................... 7 Tables Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Table 4–1: Proposed Runway Distances .......................................................................................................................... 8 Table 4–2: Revised distance from the taxiway intersections ........................................................................................... 9 Table 5–1: Revised landing distances from the proposed threshold relocation ............................................................. 10 Table 9–1: Levels of Risk ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Table 11–1: Acronyms .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Table 9–2: Relocation Risk Assessment......................................................................................................................... 13 Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 4 1. Introduction Canberra Airport (CA) has two runways; the primary Runway 17/35 is 3,283 metres (m) long and is aligned in the north-south direction and an intersecting Runway 12/30 which is aligned in the east-west direction. In accordance with its Master Plan CA is considering displacing the Runway 12 approach threshold Runway 12/30 by 360 m. “Aircraft using Runway 12 arrival and Runway 30 departure are limited to light aircraft, less than 5.7 tonne (MTOW), a result of the constraints of the nearby Canberra Noise Abatement Area. In the medium term 5-10 years, the use of Runway 12/30 may be restricted to Runway 30 arrival and Runway 12 departure on a shortened runway length.” “In the short term, 1-3 years, and subject to further studies, the landing point for Runway 12 arrival will be moved by displacing the threshold up to 450m east of the existing threshold. This will mean aircraft on arrival to the displaced threshold will be higher over the new Majura Parkway and the now duplicated Majura Road. The current lower height street lighting under the Runway 12 arrival over the Majura Parkway compared to the balance of street lighting on the Parkway points to a need for a short-term safety improvement supplied by a displaced threshold.” (extract from CA’s 2020 Master Plan (7.5, last para p107 and first para p108): CA has engaged SMEC to identify operational impacts and infrastructure changes required to facilitate and mitigate operational risks associated with this change. 2. Existing Runway 12/30 Dimensions Runway 12/30 is classified as a Code 2C runway. It is 1,679 m long and 30 m wide, is located within a 90 m strip, and has 60 m clearways at both ends. Runway 30 has an RNP non precision approach and so Runway 12/30 is classified as an instrument non precision runway. The 30 m width makes it suitable for use by aircraft with an OMWGS of up to but not including 9 m. The runway elevation is 1,849 feet (ft) at the 12 end and 1,886 ft at the 30 end. The overall Runway 12/30 grade is 0.7%. There are medium intensity runway edge lights (operating at stages 1 to 3) at 90 m separation and the Runway 30 approach has a PAPI. Its pavement has a PCN of 12, making it suitable for unlimited use by aircraft up to the Dash 8-300 (ACN 12) and restricted use by aircraft such as the Dash 8-400 (18), CL604 (14) and ATR 72 (14). The existing Runway 12 distances are shown in Table 2-1. Table 2–1: Runway distances (m) Runway TORA TODA ASDA LDA STODA 12 1,679 1,739 1,679 1,679 1,702 (5.0%) Source: Airservices Australia Runway distance supplement 02 December 2021 For Runway 12 there are two obstacles which are not considered when calculating the TODA gradient and STODA • a fence 10.5 ft above and 19 m south-east of the runway strip end • transient 16.2 ft and 10 m south-east of the runway strip Runway 12/30 is intersected by seven taxiways and Runway 17/35 (Figure 1). Table 2-2 shows the distance from the taxiway intersections to the existing runway ends. Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 5 Figure 2–1: Taxiway locations Table 2–2: Taxiway distances (m) from existing runway ends Taxiway Distance to Rwy 12 end C1 0 K 555 H 555 J 555 B 839 G 1,098 Runway 17/35 1,098 C5 1,679 3. Existing Runway 12/30 Operations 3.1 Historical Use 3.1.1 Overall activity Runway 12/30 has been used by a range of propeller and turbo prop aircraft. The following aircraft types are derived from data and flight paths Airservices Australia (AsA) provided for the CA 2019 ANEF as shown in Tables 3-1 and 3-2. Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 6 Aircraft operations associated with the runways include both take offs and landings. The overall data breakdown shown in section 3 has been determined by CA. The records show no jet aircraft operated on runway 12. Table 3–1: Aircraft types using Runway 12/30 Runway 12 Runway 30 Propeller Turbo prop Propeller Turbo prop Jet Aerostar AEST Beechcraft Models 200, 350, 90 King Air Aerostar AEST Beechcraft Models 200, 350, Beech 400 Aquila A210 Cessna Models 208, 44 Beechcraft Models 23, 33, 35, 36, 55, 58 ,76, 95 Cessna Models 208, 441 Boeing 737 -800 Beechcraft Models 23, 33, 35, 36,55,58, 76 Jet stream 32 Cessna Models 24R, 72R, 77R, 82R, 82S, 150, 152, 170, 172, 180, 182, 185, 206, 207, 210, 303, 305. 310, 337, 340, 402, 404, 414, 421 C27 Spartan Bombardier Global express Brumby BR60 Piper M600/SLS Champion Sky-Trac CH7B De Havilland Dash 8- 300 C Canadian Regional Jet CL60 Bristell NG5 Socata TBM 700 CT4 Airtourer Embraer 120 Cessna Models 500, 501, 510 525 Cessna Models 82, 150, 152, 172, 180, 182, 185, 206, 207, 210, 24R, 310, 337 ,340, 404 ,414, 72R Diamond Models 20, 40, 42 Jet stream 32 Lear jet 45 Champion Sky-Trac CH7B Gippsland GA8 Airvan Pilatus Models PC9, 12 CT4 Airtourer Grumman American AA5 Socata TBM 700B Diamond models 40, 42 Mooney 20 Swearingen Merlin 3 Gippsland GA8 Airvan Piper Models 27, 28, 28A, 28R, 28T, 30, 31,32, 32R, 32T, 34, 38, 44 Grumman American AA5 Sirrus 20, 22 Mooney 20 Jabiru Partenavia P.68 Socata TB20 Piper Models 28A, 28R, 28T, 32R, 32T, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 34, 38, 44 Van RV4, RV5, RV7, RV10, RV14 Sirrus 20, 22 Robin R200 Jabiru Socata TB20 Van RV7, RV10 Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 7 In 2018 the Runway 12/30 width was reduced from 45 m to 30 m making it unsuitable for operations by larger aircraft such as the B737. Currently the DH8-400 is not using Runway 12/30 since it was reclassified as a Code 2C. Table 3-2 shows the number of aircraft movements by operation and type for 12 runway end operations obtained from AsA noise reports for the period January 2016 to March 2021. 1 While there is a discrepancy in the total between the aircraft operations and types, the data indicates that changes to the Runway 12 end will impact relatively few, mainly propeller, aircraft. The data shows that while the runway width was reduced from 45m to 30m in 2018 the overall low runway use has been consistent since 2016. Table 3–2: Aircraft movements from the 12-runway end Period Operation Aircraft Type Arrival Rwy 12 Departure Rwy 30 Propeller Turboprop Unknown Jan – Mar 2016 133 146 229 21 29 Apr- June 2016 34 185 179 0 36 July- Sept 2016 28 162 158 0 48 Oct – Dec 2016 49 245 215 0 70 Jan – Mar 2017 99 147 192 13 39 Apr- June 2017 121 172 213 11 67 July- Sept 2017 24 208 177 0 45 Oct – Dec 2017 104 146 202 11 27 Jan – Mar 2018 106 212 276 0 46 Apr- June 2018 92 178 223 0 36 July- Sept 2018 36 211 217 0 24 Oct – Dec 2018 70 163 199 0 29 Jan – Mar 2019 128 186 231 0 78 Apr- June 2019 92 229 247 0 70 July- Sept 2019 48 222 203 0 65 Oct – Dec 2019 48 355 246 16 141 Jan – Mar 2020 136 211 197 47 102 Apr- June 2020 57 172 169 10 49 July- Sept 2020 42 211 209 5 38 Oct – Dec 2020 82 213 208 4 83 Jan – Mar 2021 112 203 253 4 57 Total 1,641 4,177 4,443 138 1,179 Monthly Average 26.05 66.30 70.52 2.19 18.71 2016 Total 244 738 781 21 183 2017 Total 348 673 784 35 178 2018 Total 304 764 915 0 135 2019 Total 316 992 927 16 354 2020 Total 317 807 783 66 272 1 http://aircraftnoiseinfo.emsbk.com/canberra/home/ Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 8 3.1.2 Royal Australian Air Force VIP transport squadron CA is the base for RAAF (VIP) Squadron is 34. It operates Boeing 737 Business Jets and Dassault Falcon 7Xs. CA provides permanent dispensation for the Falcon to operate on Runway 12/30. 3.1.3 Air Ambulance Runway 12/30 is used on a 24-hour basis as needed by the RFDS. The RFDS operates the King Air BEC350C and BEC200C in NSW. 3.2 Future Use CA forecasts that the future use of Runway 12/30 will follow the historic pattern i.e., primarily by propeller and turbo prop aircraft. The RAAF VIP Squadron and the air ambulance will also continue to use the runways required. It is anticipated that the following aircraft will continue to use Runway12/30 in the foreseeable future. Additionally, the aircraft listed below will not be impacted by the relocated threshold, as these aircraft do not use Runway 12 for landings. • Link Airways: Saab 340B plus • Rex Airways: Saab 340B plus • Qantas Link: Dash 8 200/300 variants • Fly Pelican: Jetstream 32 • Royal Flying Doctor Service: King Air B350 C and B200 C variants • 34 SQN Falcon 7X. 4. Analysis of displaced Runway 12 end Displacing the Runway 12 approach threshold by 360 m will change the available Runway 12 landing distance as shown in Table 4-1 and Figure 4-1. There will be no impact on Runway 12 take-off distances or Runway 30 distances. Table 4–1: Proposed Runway Distances Runway TORA TODA ASDA LDA 12 1,679 1,739 1,679 1,319 30 1,679 1,739 1,679 1,614 Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 9 Figure 4–1: Runway distances Table 4-2 shows the distance from the taxiway intersections to the relocated Runway 12 end. Table 4–2: Revised distance from the taxiway intersections Taxiway Distance to new Runway 12 end (m) C1 NA K 195 H 195 J 195 B 479 G 738 Runway 17/35 738 C5 1319 5. Aircraft performance AsA records show that the largest aircraft operating on Runway 12/30 included the Boeing 737 -800, Bombardier Global Express, Canadian Regional jet CL60 and Dash 8-300. All these aircraft only landed on Runway 30 when it was 45 m wide and did their take-offs on Runway 17/35. Since the runway width was reduced to 30 m the larger aircraft no longer use Runway12/30. Qantas has advised that similarly the Dash 8-Series 400 will no longer use Runway 12/30. The aircraft listed in section 3.2 will not be impacted by the relocated threshold, as these will not use the shortened Runway 12 for landings. The Master Plan ANEF endorsed by AsA has identified all landings and take offs on Runway 12 will be by light propeller and turbo prop (BEC200, Cessna 441) aircraft. 5.1.1 Take-offs As the Runway 12 take-off distance will not be impacted by the relocated threshold there will be no impact on future Runway 12 take offs by the light aircraft types nominated in the Master Plan. Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 10 5.1.2 Landings Only landings on Runway 12 will be impacted by the relocated threshold. As future Runway 12 landings will be only by light propeller and turbo prop aircraft the reduced landing distance of 1,319 m will be suitable to accommodate future landings by these aircraft. Table 5-1 includes the estimated required landing distance for a range of aircraft considered likely to land on Runway 12. Table 5–1: Revised landing distances from the proposed threshold relocation Engine Aircraft Estimated Landing distance (m) Single BEC 33 300 BEC36 450 CNA150 200 CNA172 160 CNA182 411 CNA206 450 CNA210 450 M20T 350 PA28A 300 PA32R 350 PA38 200 Twin AC50 400 BEC200 540 BEC350 820 BEC58 600 CNA404 600 CNA414 720 CNA441 350 PA32 575 Source: https://contentzone.eurocontrol.int/aircraftperformance/default.aspx/GroupFilter=11 6. Impact on Runway 12/30 operations 6.1 Runway 12 landings Relocating the Runway 12 approach threshold will reduce the amount of landing runway available and will also reduce the distance from the threshold to the intersecting taxiways. The analysis of past activity (section 3) shows that the reduced landing length will have little impact on this runway’s usability, as ASA records show that on average over the last four years there has been less than one landing per day on Runway 12. The taxiway locations relative to the new threshold may impact some aircraft ground movements. Currently the closest taxiways, Kilo, Hotel and Juliet are 555 m from the Runway 12 end. With a 360 m relocated threshold the distance to taxiways Kilo, Hotel and Juliet is reduced 195 m, Bravo to 479 m, and Golf 738 m. The relocation of the threshold will make a direct runway exit via taxiways Kilo, Hotel and Juliet unlikely and will require most aircraft to back track along the runway or exit using taxiways Bravo and Golf. Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 11 As these aircraft will primarily park at the GA apron most will need to either back track along Runway 12/30 to reach Kilo or Hotel or exit onto other taxiways. Exiting on taxiway Bravo will require aircraft either to traverse the RPT apron area or travel a circuitous route to the GA parking area via Juliet. Considering the historically low use of Runway 12 for arrival movements, which at an average of less than 1 movement per day (as shown in table 3-2), it is envisaged no congestion will occur when aircraft either backtrack onto Runway 12/30 or exit via taxiway Bravo onto taxiway Charlie through to the GA apron. 7. Required infrastructure and visual aids changes To comply with the requirements of MOS Part 139 the following infrastructure changes are required: • Runway lights (reflecting the proposed threshold location) • Line marking 8. OLS implications on existing CA airport operations and obstacles/terrain. The current Runway 12/30 is based on a MOS part 139 coding of 2C. This has been determined based on a 30m wide runway with a 90m wide flight strip. An Instrument Survey of the Approach, Take Off, Transitional, Visual Segment and Obstacle Assessment Surfaces at CA was carried out on the 18 February 2021. The results of this survey are included in Appendix 1. No obstacles were identified in the Runway 12 approach or transitional surfaces, or the Runway 30 take-off surface. Additionally, a subsequent survey was conducted based on the Runway 12 threshold displacement of 360m. In relation to the OLS permutations, this survey determines that any relocation of the threshold at 90m increments from the existing runway end, out to 360m, will remain obstacle free. In relation to changes associated with the current part 139 MOS, the new standard requires an overall flight strip width of 140m. Under the current strip dimensions no obstacles exist within the associated OLS, in relation to the Runway 12 approach, transitional and take-off protection surfaces. Currently the OLS is based on a 90m wide strip, with critical consideration to the vertical stabilisers of the Code E aircraft. All are currently below the transitional surface and based on this, there are no plans to increase the Runway 12/30 strip width and introduce obstacles where none currently exist. 9. Safety Case 9.1 Risk Assessment Categories The safety risks associated with this concept can be categorised using the project risk matrix located in Appendix 2. Three categories of risk were identified: Acceptable, Tolerable, and Intolerable. The criteria for the outcomes of the levels are listed in Table 9-1. Table 9–1: Levels of Risk Risk Category Criteria Intolerable The consequence is unacceptable under the existing circumstances. The work or activity shall not proceed at all. Tolerable After reasonable mitigating measures, have been taken to reduce the probability or the severity of the consequence, the work or activity may proceed upon endorsement from management. Acceptable The consequence is extremely improbable or not severe enough to be of a concern. Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 12 9.2 Risk Analysis The following risk assessments (Table 9-2) consider how to mitigate risks associated by hazards introduced by the relocation of the Runway 12 threshold. 10. Conclusion and Safety Assessment Outcome The risk assessment found that applying the current requirements of MOS part 139 would mitigate any risk associated with the relocation of the threshold. The application of these standards, in relation to new threshold markings, relocated runway/threshold end lights, including an update of the AsA AIP DAPs publications and Enroute and CA operational documents provides a safe and compliant outcome. The assessment found that any impact on operations by displacing the Runway 12 approach threshold are acceptable. 11. Acronyms Table 11–1: Acronyms Acronym Meaning AsA Airservices Australia ASDA Accelerate Stop Distance Available CA Canberra Airport LDA Landing distance available MLW Maximum landing weight MOS CASA Manual of Standards MTOW Maximum Take-off weight OLS Obstacle Limitation surfaces TODA Take off distance available TORA Take off runway available STODA Supplementary Take off distance available Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 13 Table 9–2: Relocation Risk Assessment R i s k I D Hazard Cause Likelihood Consequenc e Risk Mitigation Residual Likelihood Residual Consequence Residual Risk Responsibility Comment 1 Pilot missing approach threshold Not being aware of new threshold Remote Negligible Acceptable No action required Ops Manager to implement Markings and light in accordance with CASA standards New threshold included in AIS publications Issue NOTAM 2 Obstacles in infringing OLS New OLS creates new obstacles Extremely improbable Catastrophic Tolerable No action required Ops Manager to implement Carry out regular survey to identify obstacles Carry out risk and analysis and obtain CASA sign-off including lighting and making obstacles as required 3 Pilots not exiting runway as instructed by ATC Not being aware of new distances to taxiways Remote Major Acceptable No action required Ops Manager to implement Record new threshold in AIS publications Issue NOTAM Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 14 1 OLS Obstacles Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 15 2 Risk Matrix The following is the applicable quantitative and consequential breakdown for hazards associated with the relocation of the Runway 12 landing threshold. Probability of Occurrence Quantitative Definition Meaning Frequent Likely to occur many times (has occurred frequently in the industry) Occasional Likely to occur sometimes (has occurred infrequently in the industry) Remote Unlikely, but possible to occur (has occurred rarely in the industry) Improbable Very unlikely to occur (not known to have occurred in the industry) Extremely Improbable Information not available Severity of Occurrence (Consequence) Aviation Definition Meaning Catastrophic Death, fatal disease or multiple major injuries Aircraft /Equipment destroyed Major Serious injury or life-threatening occupational medical conditions Significant aircraft equipment damage Large reduction in safety margins Hazardous Injury to persons that require medical treatment or ill-health leading to disability Serious incidents/minor damage to aircraft Significant reduction in safety margins Minor Injury or ill-health requiring first-aid only Negligible Not likely to cause damages, injury ill-health Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 16 Risk Probability Risk Severity Catastrophic A Major B Hazardous C Minor D Negligible E Frequent 5 I I I T T Occasional 4 I I T T T Remote 3 I T T A A Improbable 2 T T T A A Extremely Improbable 1 T A A A A Runway 12/30 threshold displacement Study Safety Case Report – Final 1.1 Prepared for Canberra Airport Client Reference No. 3002844 SMEC Internal Ref. 3002844 27 June 2022 Page 17 We’re redefining exceptional Through our specialist expertise, we’re challenging boundaries to deliver advanced infrastructure solutions. www.smec.com