Personal Weather Risk Assessment Guide

CHAPTER ONE: PREPARATION: PERSONAL ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER MINIMUMS Each pilot should establish personal weather minimums, which may be (and often are) above FAA legal minimums for a VFR or IFR flight. Airlines and corporate flight departments have personal minimums above FAA weather minimums where pilot experience is limited, and have operational minimums that apply when the aircraft has less than full operation of all systems necessary for dealing with weather. Pilot personal minimums are based on an assessment of pilot certification, training, and experience. When you obtain new ratings or upgrade your certificate, or when your current experience level changes, you should review and, if appropriate, revise your personal minimums (and it should be reviewed at least annually). The following forms may be used to assess your certification, training, and experience level, and to record your personal minimums. They should be cut, folded, and placed in the pilot’s logbook for ready reference.

Certification, Training and Experience Summary Assessment #1 Assessment #2 Certification (e.g., commercial, multi-engine; instrument rating) Highest certificate level and ratings (incl. Complex aircraft) Training Flight review: e.g., certificate, rating, Wings Program completion, etc.

Instrument Proficiency Check Time since checkout in airplane: Time since checkout in airplane: Time since checkout in airplane: Variation in Equipment (GPS navigator), number of different panels Experience Total flying time Years flying Hours in the last year Hours in this or identical airplane in last year Landings in last year Night hours in last year Night landings in last year High density altitude hours in last year Mountainous terrain hours in last year Strong crosswind or gusty landings in last year IFR hours in last year Actual hours in IMC in the last year Approaches (actual or simulated) in last year Cut and Fold Cut and Fold Cut and Fold Cut and Fold PERSONAL MINIMUMS Example 1: 100 Example 2: Your Personal Condition Hour VFR Pilot 300 Hour IFR Pilot Minimums Minimum Visibility – Day VFR 5 miles 3 miles Minimum Visibility – Night VFR 7 miles 5 miles Minimum Ceiling – Day VFR 3,000 feet 2,000 feet Minimum Ceiling – Night VFR 5,000 feet 3,000 feet Surface Wind Speed & Gusts 15 knots Same 5 knot gust Maximum Cross Wind 7 knots Same Other VFR (e.g., mountain flying, Consult Same over water beyond gliding distance) instructor/mentor IFR Approach Ceiling N/A Minimums + 500 feet IFR Approach Visibility N/A Minimums + ½ mile Other IFR (e.g., icing) N/A Consult instructor/mentor CHAPTER TWO -- BEST PRACTICES FOR THE ACTUAL FLIGHT A. Risk Assessment: Three Methods to Choose From 1. “PAEDU” Risk Assessment Methodology PAEDU (Pilot-Aircraft-Environment-Duration-Urgency) is the risk assessment methodology of the FAA’s Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) program; it enables the pilot to assess the risk of a flight by evaluating the presence of risk factors in each of these five areas and then assessing the risk for the area on a scale of 1 to 4.

P -- Pilot. Risk factors include: • physical condition • illness • taking over-the-counter drugs • psychological condition • death of a spouse or divorce or other marital conflict • losing job • children in trouble • fatigue A -- Aircraft. Risk factors include: • inoperative equipment • unreliable avionics • lack of de-ice, if ice is an issue • lack of weather radar, if thunderstorms are an issue • lack of climb performance • range, if circumnavigating weather is an issue E – Environment. Risk factors include: • weather • terrain • night • security restrictions (TFRs or ADIZs) D -- duration, hours of flight time, the longer the flight, the more the condition of the pilot, airplane or environment may deteriorate unexpectedly, thus increasing any of the above risk factors.

U – Urgency, or pressure to complete the flight as planned, which often leads the pilot to interpret risk factors in more favorable light than is warranted and initiate or continue a flight when it is really too risky.

Assign a value from one (the lowest risk) to four (the highest risk) for each risk area ( P , A , E , D , and U ), based on the above factors. Add the values of P and A and E , then add the values of D and U . Finally, multiply the two total sums, ( P + A + E ) times ( D + U ) to get the value for total risk, ranging from 6 to 96. Typical flights when pilots have no stress factors, the airplane is in good working order and suitable for the mission, the weather is good, flight duration is less than ½ the maximum endurance, and the flight has no urgency results in the minimum risk level of 6.

Add the urgency of a make-or-break business meeting or important personal function (e.g., your wedding) on a maximum endurance 6-hour flight will result in U=4 and D=4, and the risk level rises to 24. Adding icing and convection and low IMC conditions with an airplane not equipped for these forecast weather hazards would increase risk to 48. Add some pilot stress (e.g., from a recent fight with your fiancée) to this situation and the risk rises to 64 (see below) – over 10 times as risky. Use this to determine if the risk is warranted by the purpose of the flight.

(P + A + E) X (D + U) Total 3 1 4 4 4 64 2. PAVE (Pilot-Aircraft-enVironment-External) The PAVE Checklist works like any checklist that you would use in your aircraft. However, you should expand the use of the PAVE to your flight planning as well, and take special consideration to each line item before your final decision to fly. The PAVE checklist will give you a step-by-step approach to assessing your knowledge, but leaves the final go-no-go decision to the PIC.

Appendix B contains the FAA’s PAVE risk assessment form, which contains instructions for use. This form contains a larger number of risk factors than the PAEDU tool, but is more qualitative.

3. Flight Risk Assessment The Flight Assessment Form, below, assigns a number to various risk factors regarding the pilot, aircraft, and environment. Each element is scored for the flight, and the totals and Grand Total determined. Then, the pilot is advised on the appropriate course of action depending on the Grand Total and whether the flight is VFR or IFR.

These actions are: Go, for lowest Grand Total; Consider Alternate Actions; Consult Experienced CFI or Mentor; and Don’t Go, for the highest Grand Total. See the attached form.

Appendix A contains a scenario which uses the Personal Minimums Inventory and Checklist, and the Flight Assessment Form. This is to provide an example on how to use these forms.

Appendix C contains the Flight Assessment Form. We have designed it on one page for ease of printing and use.

B. Best Practices Weather Flight Planning 1. Sources of Information for Flight Planning There are many sources of weather information for flight planning.

• Telephone: FAA FSS 1-800-WX-BRIEF • Television: Weather Channel, News • Internet: • DUATS • Association weather pages, e.g., AOPA, EAA • National Weather Service (NWS) • Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) • Private weather services • Airline Dispatchers Federation 2. Review the Information and Your Readiness for the Flight The quantity and quality of your weather information will have a direct affect on your weather planning. The factors that affect the adequacy of the quantity and quality of weather information for your decisions include: The severity of the consequences of being wrong. For example, what will happen if you inadvertently encounter: • IMC conditions?

• Icing conditions?

• Embedded thunderstorms?

• Other significant weather hazards?

Your degree of certainty about information may be affected by: • FAA approved source (e.g., DUATS, FSS, NWS, etc.)

• The duration of your flight • The distances between reporting reports • The proximity of the weather conditions to your personal minimums • Your degree of confidence that you understand the weather situation.

3. Prepare Your Weather Map You should develop a weather picture over your intended route of flight.

a. Using the information you have obtained, can you state or visualize a picture, both in plan view (from above) and in cross-section view (from the side, including terrain) of all the relevant weather on your flight/route, with other information, all of which are related to time. The information may include: • Terrain (topography that includes natural and man-made obstructions).

• Cloud bases and tops.

• Icing levels.

• Winds aloft.

• Areas of IMC.

• Thunderstorm movement.

b. Visualize your flight by drawing a “weather picture” of your flight.

• Draw a straight line between your two points.

• Draw an ellipse (actually a rough boundary line on either side of the straight line, the resulting lines will probably form an elliptical border around your intended route) to show an area where you will need information about weather that may affect your route of flight.

• Note the weather patterns within the elliptical area.

• Apply the information to your weather decisions. Construct a route to avoid weather that is hazardous to you and your airplane (given the capabilities of you and your airplane).

c. Develop a primary flight plan (Plan A) to conduct your flight safely using your weather picture, by asking yourself.

1) What is the best plan to make the flight, within your personal minimums, considering: • Your aircraft and its capabilities • The environment, weather and terrain • External factors, such as security restrictions, e.g., Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) and Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZs).

2) The plan is defined by: • The route, • The altitudes en route, and • Time of departure d. Develop an alternative flight plan (Plan B), to be executed when the actual weather you find en route is not what your weather picture was believed to be when you made Plan A. Determine under what conditions you will abandon Plan A and execute Plan B, based on changing weather conditions en route. Know your methods of exiting from weather hazards when conditions deteriorate by activating Plan B in order to remain within your personal minimums. Plan B is defined by: • The new route, • Changes in altitude, or • The new destination.

4. Develop “Plan B” Your Alternative Actions Proposed alternative action(s) to be taken At departure airport Unplanned decision event _____________________________ Action(s) to be taken: ______________________________ ______________________________ ______________________________ Expectation of Success ______________________________ Enroute Unplanned decision event ______________________________ Action to be taken: ______________________________ ______________________________ ______________________________ Expectation of Success ______________________________ Unplanned decision event _____________________________ Action to be taken: ______________________________ ______________________________ ______________________________ Expectation of Success ______________________________ At destination Unplanned decision event ______________________________ Action to be taken: ______________________________ ______________________________ ______________________________ Expectation of Success ______________________________ a. Your decision whether to execute Plan A, or to go to Plan B, will be based on a risk assessment.

1) This is a continuous process of evaluating the actual weather against your “picture” and deciding if the actual weather still meets your personal minimums.

• If you are within your personal minimums, you may stay with Plan A.

• If you are not within your personal minimums, or looks like it is not developing as you expected, you should immediately go to plan B.

2) Timely decisions are of utmost importance because a large number accidents are caused by pilots waiting too long to execute Plan B b. You must always have a safe “out”. If you are a relatively new VFR pilot, and Plan A has failed, and you have execute Plan B, and now it too is failing, you should realize that you may not have adequately assessed the weather conditions initially, and that Plan C should be to land as soon as practical. Then you can develop an entirely new set of plans in an environment where you have access to weather information from more detailed discussions with weather briefers on the phone and from computer weather graphics at the FBO. After plans A and B have not worked, you may not be able to construct a good Plan C in the air and simultaneously cope with adverse weather conditions at the same. In these circumstances, it is best to land and reassess the situation.

c. During pre-flight preparation, should involve outside review at a specified risk level, independent, objective, knowledgeable review of your risk assessment using Peer review by fellow pilots, or consulting with an instructor or mentor (more experienced person) review. Once you re en route, the only outside review is likely to be Flight Service Station personnel, some of whom are experienced pilots as well as weather briefers.

APPENDIX A: SIMULATED VFR SCENARIO

A VFR pilot, flying simple, single engine airplane on a personal transportation cross-country flight.

Pilot • a non-instrument rated, VFR pilot • pilot is a 49 year old male • pilot has 235 hours total time, 50 in the last year, and 30 in this or an identical airplane • pilot has four years flying experience (since receiving first flight lesson) • it is single pilot operation (no other pilots on board) • flight will be commenced after the end of a work day • pilot has not flown in one month, has 25 landings in the last year, only two strong crosswind or gusty • pilot has 3 night hours in the last year, and 2 night landings.

• Pilot has no high density altitude or mountainous terrain operations in the last year • pilot has a total of three hours hood time and no actual (IMC) experience • pilot will be taking his family to the beach Aircraft • aircraft is a Cessna 172 • aircraft has two Nav/Com radios each with a VOR • aircraft does not have a stormscope or an autopilot Mission • June 21 departure at 1730 from Montgomery County Airpark, Maryland (KGAI) to First Flight Airport, Kitty Hawk North Carolina (KFFA) (both non-towered airports) • estimated enroute time is three hours • pilot is unfamiliar with destination • there is no weather reporting at KFFA • pilot plans to stay at hotel that requires check-in by 2100 Weather • VFR is not recommended • visibility is forecast enroute to be 4 to 5 miles • forecast includes possible ground fog in KFFA area PILOT FACTS Pilot Condition Fatigue?

• Sleep within last 24 hours? 6 hours • Sleep deficit (long term)? No • Workday preceding flight? Yes, 8 hours Food and water • When was last meal? Noon • When last water? 4 PM Alcohol • Within last 24 hours? None Drugs/Medication(s ) None Stressful event(s)?

• Daughter’s marriage Previous weekend

Illness(es)? yes • What 24 hour flu • When one week before • Still affecting? Yes, still a little weak Pilot Qualifications (update as necessary) • Private ASEL, no instrument rating • Total time 235 hours • Total instrument time 3 hours (all hood time, none in aircraft) • Total time in aircraft 100 hours Pilot Proficiency and or Recency (update as necessary) • Last Flight Review July, 12 months earlier • Last recurrent training Private rating, four years earlier • Last 90 days Flight time ◊ ¾ Total 2 hours ¾ In aircraft 2 hours ¾ IMC time none ¾ Simulated IFR none ¾ PCTAD 4 hours ¾ Take offs & landings 3 ¾ Day 3 ¾ Night 0 ¾ Significant crosswind no Personal Weather Minimums (comfort level) VFR • Visibility 4 miles • Ceilings 2500 feet • Winds 10 knots • Turbulence moderate • AIRCRAFT FACTS Fuel reserves (for proposed flight) • VFR, Day 2 hours Performanc e (for proposed flight) • Gross weight at gross weight • Load distribution within limits • Density altitude 2500 feet Equipment (for proposed flight) • Avionics - familiar and proficient? marginally proficient • COM/NAV - appropriate to flight? yes • Charts - current? yes • Alternate landing sites yes – Elizabeth City, NC • Survival gear - appropriate for flight/terrain? none

ENVIRONMENT Airport(s) Conditions (for proposed flight) • Departure airport Crosswind - % of maximum POH less than 50% ◊ ◊ Runway length - % more than POH more than 200% greater than required • Destination airport ◊ Crosswind - % of maximum POH less than 50% ◊ Runway length - % more than POH more than 200% greater than required ◊ Weather reporting? none ◊ ATC services? none ◊ Radar services? none Weather (for proposed flight) • Reports and forecasts – how recent current • For VFR flight or portion of flight ◊ Ceiling ¾ Day (feet) 3500 feet ¾ Night (feet) 1000 to 3000 feet ◊ Visibility ¾ Day (miles) 3 to 5 miles with haze ¾ Night (miles) 3 miles with haze EXTERNAL PRESSURES CHECKLIST Trip Planning • time allowance for delays 15 minutes (plan to arrive 2030, 15 min. walk to hotel) Diversion/Cancellation Plans • Notification of concerned persons? no • Passengers briefed on possible changes no • Hotel reservations none if late arrival Personal Equipment or Information Necessary For Alternative Plans • Contact telephone numbers none • Cash and/or checks yes • Credit cards yes • Clothing (extended stay) no

Personal Minimums Inventory and Checklist

Certification, Training and Experience Summary Assessment #1 Assessment #2 Certification (e.g., commercial, multi-engine; instrument rating) Highest certificate level and ratings (incl. Complex aircraft) ASEL, Hi Perf.

Training Flight review: e.g., certificate, rating, Wings Program completion, etc. 7/2000 Instrument Proficiency Check N/A Time since checkout in airplane: CE-172 7/2000 Time since checkout in airplane: Time since checkout in airplane: Variation in Equipment (GPS navigator), number of different panels 9/01: 3 panels Experience Total flying time 235 Years flying 4 Hours in the last year 50 Hours in this or identical airplane in last year 30 Landings in last year 25 Night hours in last year 3 Night landings in last year 2 High density altitude hours in last year 0 Mountainous terrain hours in last year 0 Strong crosswind or gusty landings in last year 2 IFR hours in last year 0 Actual hours in IMC in the last year 0 Approaches (actual or simulated) in last year 0 Example 1: 100 Example 2: Your Personal Condition hour VFR Pilot 300 hour IFR Pilot Minimums Minimum Visibility – Day VFR 5 miles 3 miles 4 Minimum Visibility – Night VFR 7 miles 5 miles 5 Minimum Ceiling – Day VFR 3,000 feet 2,000 feet 2500 Minimum Ceiling – Night VFR 5,000 feet 3,000 feet 4000 Surface Wind Speed & Gusts 15 knots Same 15 knots 5 knot gust 5 knot gust Maximum Cross Wind 7 knots Same 7 knots Other VFR (e.g. mountain flying, Consult your Same Consult your over water beyond gliding distance) instructor/mentor instructor/mentor IFR Approach Ceiling N/A Minimums plus 500 feet N/A OFR Approach Visibility N/A Minimums plus N/A ½ mile Other IFR (e.g. icing) N/A Consult your N/A instructor/mentor

FLIGHT ASSESSMENT (1) Pilot Personal Factors Assessment Form VFR = VFR pilot on VFR flight plan IFR = IFR current pilot on IFR flight plan PERSONAL FACTOR ITEM VFR Pilot IFR Pilot Score Less than 100 hours in type - has 100 hrs + 2 + 3 0 Unfamiliar destination – yes + 1 + 2 + 1 Fatigue (less than normal sleep prior night) yes + 2 + 3 + 2 Flight after end of work day – yes + 2 + 3 + 3 Scheduled commitment after flight – yes + 2 + 2 + 2 Recent death of close family member – no + 2 + 2 0 Major domestic problems – no + 2 + 2 0 Illness in family – no + 1 + 1 0 Second pilot who is rated and current – no - 1 - 1 0 Alcohol within the last 24 hours – no + 2 + 2 0 Taking over the counter medication – no + 3 + 3 0 Inadequate food prior to flight – no + 2 + 2 0 Inadequate water prior to flight/ no water on board - no + 2 + 2 0 Day > 10,000’ PA with no supplemental oxygen – no + 2 + 2 0 Night > 5,000’ PA with no supplemental oxygen – no + 3 + 3 0 Flight duration more than 3 hours – no + 2 + 2 +0 TOTAL PILOT SCORE +8 (2). Aircraft Operational Assessment Form OPERATIONAL FACTOR ITEM VFR IFR SCORE Fuel calculation completed for flight with reserves for day/night conditions - yes -1 - 1 -1 Total fuel required for flight with reserves for day/night conditions less than 60% of available fuel – no - 2 - 3 0 Weight & balance calculation made – yes - 1 - 1 - 1 Weight w/in 10% max. gross – yes + 2 + 2 + 2 Takeoff or landing distance more than 50% of intended runways to be used – no + 2 + 2 0 TOTAL AIRCRAFT SCORE 0 (3) Environment Assessment Form ENVIRONMENT FACTOR ITEM VFR IFR Score Visibility 3 to 5 miles – yes + 2 0 + 2 Visibility 1 to 3 miles – no + 5 0 0 Destination visibility less than 1 mile – no + 20 + 1 0 Ceilings less than 3,000’ AGL – yes + 3 0 + 3 Destination ceilings less than 1,000 feet AGL – no + 10 + 1 0 Destination ceilings less than 500 feet AGL – no + 20 + 2 0 Convective activity within 20 NM of flight – no + 5 + 3 0 Convective activity with no storm scope or other means of detection capability – no + 10 + 3 0 Convective activity with detection capability – no 0 - 2 0 Destination dew point spread less than 3 ° – yes + 5 + 1 + 5 No de-icing equipment surface temperatures less than 40 ° F and clouds or precipitation– no + 30 +10 0 Icing forecast (AIRMET more than light) at altitude required to fly with de-icing equipment – no N/A + 2 0 Operational control tower at destination – no - 2 - 2 0 VASI/PAPI at destination – no - 1 - 1 0 Radar environment at destination – no - 1 - 1 0 Mountainous terrain – no + 3 + 3 0 Approach/departure over water – yes + 1 + 1 +1 High bird hazard – no + 1 + 1 0 Unpaved runway – no + 1 + 1 0 IFR and only approach is non-precision N/A + 2 Weather reporting at airport - – no - 1 - 1 Precipitation causing obstruction to visibility - no + 2 + 1 0 Wet runway –no + 1 + 1 0 Ice on runway – no + 2 + 2 0 Cross wind in excess of 90% demonstrated maximum cross wind in Pilot Operating Handbook – no + 2 + 2 0 Using flight following or radar advisories in high density traffic areas – no - 1 n/a 0 On IFR Flight plan in VFR conditions – no - 1 n/a 0 TOTAL ENVIRONMENT SCORE +11 (4) VFR Pilot Scoring Total Pilot Factor Score ____8____ Total Aircraft Factor Score ____0____ Total Environment Factor Score ____11___ Grand Total of Points ____19___ (5) Action to be Taken Based on Flight Assessment Risk Factor Grand Total Action Minimal Less than 7 Go Low 7 to 10 Consider alternate actions to reduce risk Medium 11 – 15 Consult a CFI experienced in the type of flight you propose to make High More than 15 Don’t go Based on the above score, the pilot should not to make the flight.

OTHER SCENARIOS • An IFR pilot flying complex, single engine airplane in icing or thunderstorms • An IFR pilots flying complex, single engine airplane or multiengine airplane with ice protection equipment and airborne weather radar, and • Various typical rotorcraft operations 16 16 APPENDIX B, PERSONAL MINIMUMS CHECKLIST 17 17

Score 0 0 0 - 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 IFR +10 N/A N/A - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 5 + 5 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 +20 +10 +20 +10 +30 N/A N/A VFR Go Don’t go IFR Action Consider alternate actions IFR current pilot on IFR flight ° Consult experienced Instrument CFI

IFR =

F, and low clouds or precipitation 7 to 10 11 to 15 ° Less than 7 More than 15 IFR Grand Total Environment Factor Visibility 3 to 5 miles Visibility 1 to 3 miles Destination visibility less than 1 mile Ceilings less than 3,000’ AGL Destination ceilings less than 1,000’AGL Destination ceilings less than 500’AGL Convective activity within 20 NM of flight path Convective act./ no storm-scope/detection capability Convective activity with detection capability Destination dew point spread less than 3 No de-icing equipment, surface temperature less than 40 Icing forecast (AIRMET more than light) at altitude required to fly with de-icing equipment Operational control tower at destination VASI/PAPI at destination Radar environment at destination Mountainous terrain Approach/departure over water High bird hazard Unpaved runway IFR and only approach is non-precision Weather reporting at airport Precipitation causing obstruction to visibility Wet runway Ice on runway Crosswind 90% of max POH Using flight following/radar advisories in high density traffic areas On IFR flight plan during VFR conditions TOTAL GRAND TOTAL VFR pilot on VFR flight

VFR =

Score Score Go - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 + 3 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 IFR IFR Don’t go VFR Action - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 VFR VFR Consult experienced CFI Consider alternate actions

Flight Assessment Form

6 to 8 9 to 14 Less than 6 More than 14 VFR Grand Total

Appendix C

Minimal Low Medium High Pilot Factor Less than 100 hours in type Unfamiliar Destination Fatigue (less than normal sleep prior night) Flight at end of work day Scheduled commitment after flight Recent death of close family member Major domestic problems Illness in family Second pilot who is rated and current Alcohol within the last 24 hours Taking over the counter medication Inadequate food prior to flight Inadequate water prior to flight/no water on board Day > 10,000’ PA with no supplemental Oxygen Night > 5,000’ PA with no supplemental Oxygen Flight duration more than 3 hours TOTAL Aircraft Factor Fuel calculation completed for flight with reserves for day/night conditions Total fuel required for flight with reserves for day/night conditions less 60% of available fuel Weight and balance calculated Weight within 10% of maximum gross Takeoff or landing distance more than 50% of runway length TOTAL