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N7516554 OF TECHNOLOGY 37.628) ANALYSIS JN AS A-cR-1 FOR DEMAND AND POTENTIAL REQUIREMENTS SYSTEMS: FOR AVIATION AVIONICS GENERAL Unclas Summary Executive THE 1980'S OPERATION IN 09837 G3/06 Pa.)
Jenkintown, Corp., Sciences (Decision
CORPORATION-
DECISION SCIENCES
SUMMARY EXECUTIVE REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY AND POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR SYSTEMS AVIATION AVIONICS GENERAL FOR 1980'S OPERATION IN THE by David M. Cohn John H. Kayser George M. Senko Donald R. Glenn Contract #NAS2-7888 June, 1974 Submitted to: (NASA) and Space Administration National Aeronautics Ames Research Center Moffett Field, California by Reproduced TECHNICAL NATIONAL SERVICE INFORMATION of Commerce Deparfment US 22151 VA.
Springfield, CORPORATION SCIENCES DECISION TU 7-1970 19046 * (215) JENKINTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA FOX PAVILION * BENJAMIN A. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY In the context of NASA's role in general aviation technology to improve the safety of all flight operations, and to recognize and provide the growing technological needs and requirements, Decision Sciences Corporation was awarded a contract by NASA to undertake a comprehensive study and analysis of the technological requirements and potential demand for general aviation avionics systems for operation in the 1980's.
The primary objective of this program was to identify tech- nology areas where NASA's research and development activities can make substantial contributions to the design of avionics to satisfy the future requirements of general aviation. It was established that prime considerations would be for avionics which would provide added safety, lower costs, and spectrum of the general improved reliability across the total aviation marketplace.
To support these general goals, the following subordinate objectives were defined: o Develop a complete definition of the present general market aviation avionics o Identify major problem areas and constraints to growth in general aviation and relate them to avionics systems and equipment o Identify technological advances in avionics systems which would be desirable in the 1980 time frame to satisfy the requirements being placed on the general aviation industry o Estimate the future demand for avionics equipment as a function of available funds and requirements of the evolving airspace system o Estimate the impact and public benefits of potential technological advances Thus, the overall intent of this study was to identify avionics systems which promise to reduce economic constraints and provide significant improvements in performance, operational capability and utility for general aviation aircraft in the 1980's.
i.
B. ORGANIZATION OF THE FINAL REPORT study is organized into two volumes, i.e.
The final report of this Executive Summary Final Report This volume presents a summary of the study project.
seven tasks accomplished report contains a description of the The final under Contract #NAS2-7888.
by DSC and our recommendations chapter including the project Chapter I is the introductory used in objectives and a description of the methodology a comprehensive carrying out the project. Chapter II provides market definition and structuring of the general aviation according to aircraft type and user category. The analysis available on annual includes historical and current information avionics, and describes typical systems sales of general aviation type and user category.
of avionics equipment for each aircraft of the national air trans- Chapter III provides an analysis of planned changes in the portation system. The effect future technology requirements national aviation system on avionics systems is assessed. Chapter IV for general aviation to growth in describes the major problem areas and constraints the 1980-1985 time general aviation likely to occur during general aviation avionics frame. An identification of emerging in Chapter V. The probable requirements and trends is provided demand is general aviation of timing and level of impact on and Chapter VI outlines an assessment of the impact covered.
in general aviation public benefits of prospective advances avionics systems and equipment. Estimates of the price avionics systems are provided in sensitivity of demand of the market forecast of the Chapter VII. Chapter VIII contains through the year 1985.
demand for general aviation avionics technology presents our recommendations regarding Chapter IX and development could be directed by NASA to areas where research in performance, safety, provide significant improvements general of operation and overall capability of simplicity aviation aircraft.
AVIATION MARKET AND FORECAST OF THE GENERAL C. STRUCTURE Aviation Fleet 1. Forecast of the General in general aviation forecast the avionics requirements To was necessary to examine the present during the 1980's, it aviation fleet. Therefore, structure of the general 2.
aviation was divided into the following aircraft general to provide a more complete under- and user categories standing of the avionics requirements in the various segments of the industry: o Aircraft classes - Light single-engine piston, 1-3 place - Medium/heavy single piston, 4+ place - Light twin piston - Medium/heavy twin piston and turboprop - Turbine - Other o User categories - Corporate/executive flying - Business flying - Personal flying - Aerial application - Industrial application - Instruction - Air taxi, charter - Other Chapter I of the report examines in detail the various segments of the general aviation market and estimates the current level of avionics equipment and expenditures by segment.
In order to forecast the size of the general aviation fleet in 1985, DSC utilized our forecasting model, which considers general aviation industry-related factors such as: o Airmen certificates o Airports 3.
o FAA airport expenditures o Price of aircraft o Aircraft mix changes o Cost of flying - Training - Avionics costs DSC's forecasting activities, it has been determined From a number of definite issues which characterize that there are and which must be incorporated the deliveries of new aircraft very In the short term, the industry is into the forecasts.
supply and its cost. It is strongly sensitive to money of public attitudes. Furthermore, reactions influenced by changes in manufacturers to real or perceived the airframe affect industry activity.
the economy greatly that general aviation In the longer term, it was found follow the patterns of the deliveries, to a great extent, However, government regulations, gross national product.
and Depart- of other modes of transportation, availability for air travel facilities ment of Transportation expenditures industry-related of are all influencing factors. Among the of general aviation are importance in long-term forecasts and departure locations, airmen numbers of airline arrival fleet composition and age.
licenses, and the model and shown The forecast of aircraft provided by DSC's aviation fleet in Figure I was added to the existing general after taking into account exports, imports and attrition, Thus, resulting in the fleet forecast shown in Figure II.
medium and high fleet it is expected that in 1980, the low, 183,000 aircraft. By forecasts are 173,000, 179,000 and be 214,000, 229,000 and 1985, the range of estimates will 238,000 active aircraft.
The DSC forecast of fleet distribution by type of aircraft are It is significant that the share of shown in Figure III.
piston aircraft is declining from approximately single-engine in 1985.
aircraft fleet in 1970 to 78% 83% of the total represents an in absolute numbers, this Nevertheless, piston of approximately 70,000 single-engine increase 178,000.
the total in 1985 to more than aircraft, bringing 4.
FIGURE I
FORECAST OF AIRCRAFT
DELIVERIES
TOTAL NUMBER
ANNUAL
PERIOD OF AIRCRAFT
DELIVERED AVERAGE
1965- 1969 (ACTUAL)* 67,352 13,470
1970 - 1973 (ACTUAL)* 38,385 9,596
LOW 164,050 13,670
1974- 1985** MEDIUM 210,550 17,545
HIGH
234,650 19,554
*SOURCE: GAMA **DSC FORECAST 5.
FIGURE II
GENERAL
AVIATION
FLEET -
DSC FORECAST
250-
S , LOW PROJECTION
2-
g25 MEDIUM
PROJECTION
PROJECTION
: HIGH
200-
THOUSANDS
175 I
OF
AIRCRAFT
150I
125- I I I I
1980 1985
1970 1975
(ACTUAL) FIGURE III
GENERAL AVIATION FLEET DISTRIBUTION
BY
TYPE OF AIRCRAFT
(% OF AIRCRAFT FLEET)
1970 1975 1980 1985
SINGLE-ENGINE PISTON 83,1
81,9 79,5 77.5
MULTI-ENGINE PISTON 12.1 12.9 14.8 16,6
TURBINE 1,7 2,2 2,5 2,7
OTHER- ROTORCRAFT, ETC. 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2
SOURCE: DSC
2. Airmen It was mentioned that an important factor in long-term forecasting was the number of airmen certificates.
The statistics and the forecasts of airmen certificates used in this study were provided by the FAA. The FAA forecasts indicate that the total number of active airmen in will reach approximately 1.2 million, consisting of about 528,000 pilots with private licenses, 318,000 pilots with commercial licenses, and 282,000 student pilots.
Possibly the most significant change in the airmen statistics is the considerable increase during the past ten years in the number of pilots holding instrument ratings.
Between 1962 and 1972 IFR-rated pilots have increased by approximately 150% to a total of more than 190,000.
During the next ten years, the number of instrument-rated pilots as a percentage of total non-student pilots is expected to reach 44% in 1985, for a total of more than 370,000 as shown in Figure IV.
It is a reasonable assumption that the demand for avionics will increase as a result of the increase in instrument- rated pilots.
Within this context it can be noted that with an increase of 15% in the number of general aviation IFR aircraft handled in 1971, general aviation constituted 20% of the total IFR activity at controlled airports.
Furthermore, during the five-year period 1966-1971, general aviation IFR aircraft handled increased by 110%. During the same period, aircraft operations increased by 20% and instrument approaches by 77%. Since 1968, instrument operations (IFR landings and takeoffs) increased by 59% and, in 1971, general aviation accounted for 28% of all instrument operations.
Thus, there has been not only an increase in the size of the general aviation fleet and in the amount of flying, but also a change in the nature of the activity of general aviation. The increase in the number of IFR-rated pilots was noted, and it appears that this is resulting in an increased sophistication in the use of the National Aviation System by general aviation.
3.
The National Aviation System The operational characteristics of the avionics systems carried in today's aircraft must conform to the requirements of the National Aviation System and the ATC environment.
This is specifically the case in the functional areas of 8.
FIGURE IV
INSTRUMENT-RATED
PILOTS AS A
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL
PILOTS
(44%)
40 _
(40%)
(36%)
(34%)
PERCENT
OF TOTAL
PILOTS
1975 1980 SOURCE: FAA (ACTUAL) (FORECAST) (FORECAST) (FORECAST) communication and navigation and is indirectly true for other types of equipment. Therefore, in order to determine the nature of the avionics that aircraft will carry during the 1980's, it was necessary to make an assessment of the shape of the National Airspace System at that time and changes that are forthcoming in the regulatory environment that will have an impact on general aviation.
The National Aviation System "generations" shown in Figure V summarize the evolution of the ATC system fron 1936 to beyong 1985.
At present, the system is at the beginning of the third generation.
The implementation emphasis is on expanded automation and centralized flow control.
Installation of conventional instrument landing systems is planned to continue through 1978.
During the early 1980's, the planned emphasis is on conflict prediction and resolu- tion, the Discrete Address Beacon System and automated data link, microwave landing system installation and general use of area navigation. The primary changes in pilot requirements and in airborne flight and navigation equipment are centered in the bi-annual pilot proficiency checks, mandatory IFR ratings with commercial licenses, and the altitude reporting transponder in TCA's and above 12,500 feet.
It is apparent that the changes which potentially will have the greatest impact on general aviation avionics are DABS, Collision Avoidance Systems, and microwave ILS.
D. AVIONICS PRICE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND DEMAND FORECAST 1. Avionics Price Sensitivity Analysis An integral part of this study was to determine targeted prices for the avionics which would be recommended for NASA R&D activities. Recognizing that there is a wide variation in what would be considered an acceptable price based on user classification and aircraft type, DSC under- took a price sensitivity analysis which was aimed at determining: o The future demand for existing avionics o The funds available to purchase existing avionics and newly developed equipment o The price range goals that must realisticably be set for new avionics 10.
FIGURE V
NATIONAL
AVIATION SYSTEM
"GENERATIONS"
GENERATION TIME
PERIODI
KEY FEATURES
FIRST 1936-1960 "
MANUAL STRIP PRINTING
* ANC CONTROL
10 MINS.-1000' ALTITUDE-10
MILES
* AIR GROUND COMM,-FSS
RELAY
• LOW FREQ. AND VOR NAVIGATION
SECOND 1960-1970
• LIMITED PRINTING
OF STRIPS
• RADAR
CONTROL
* INTRODUCTION OF ATCRBS
* VORTAC NAVIGATION
THIRD 1970-1978
' NAS AND ARTS AUTOMATION
* GREATER USE OF
ATCRBS
* CENTRALIZED
FLOW CONTROL
* VHF/UHF ILS
° INCREASED AUTOMATION CONFLICT PREDICTION
UPGRADED 1978-1985
THIRD
LCONFLICT RESOLUTION
• DISCRETE ADDRESS
BEACON-AUTO DATA LINK
• MICROWAVE ILS
* AREA NAVIGATION
ADVANCED
POST 1985 ' AUTOMATED
AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL,
MANUAL OVERRIDE
PROPOSALS P SATELLITE
SURVEILLANCE
COMMUNICATIONS
* NEW SYSTEM ORGANIZATION TWO DOMESTIC CENTERS
TWO OCEANIC CENTERS
* WORLDWIDE NAV SYSTEM
//
The initial step in the methodology that was established to arrive at price sensitivity conclusions was to identify all of the pertinent variables in the avionics market- place including the primary influences which either stimulate or depress the demand for avionics equipment.
Having identified these factors, attributing actual price sensitivity parameters to them did not prove to be a directly approachable goal due to the lack of reliable, patterns.
valid industry data on avionics prices and demand avionics are not a Unlike general aviation aircraft, of sales volume except at a very gross measured commodity level. Therefore, it was necessary for DSC to develop an indirect approach to the sensitivity measurements, and which would use factors that have readily available and inter- related data bases. They included: o Total aircraft costs and cost trends o Avionics unit costs and cost trends o Aircraft avionics complements o Patterns of aircraft usage o Types and numbers of aircraft which comprise the general avaition aircraft fleet In our analysis, DSC found that the avionics market is closely tied to new aircraft deliveries. Approximately 80% of total annual avionics sales in general aviation are installed in new aircraft; 50% of the total are factor- installed; and 30% are field installed. Furthermore, projecting to 1985, DSC has established that the relation- ship between avionics installations into new aircraft compared to retrofit sales is likely to remain relatively constant. However, DSC believes that due to increasing pressures by the airframe manufacturers, factory installations avionics will increase as a proportion of total avionics of installations in new aircraft.
The results of the analysis enabled DSC to derive the actual cost forecasts shown in Figure VI for the avionics complements for each class of aircraft.
This sensitivity analysis also determined the funds available within each aircraft segment for expanded avionics capabilities, as well as for new equipment, and enabled us to establish 12.
FIGURE VI
PROJECTED
AVIONICS EXPENDITURES
- 1975-1985
(000's
OF $)
AVIONICS $
AIRCRAFT TYPE
IN 1975 1977 1979
1981 1983 1985
SINGLES
LIGHT
4.47
4.72
5,00
5.30
5.61
5.94
6.26
MEDIUM-HEAVY
5.20
5.42
5.75
6.08
6.44
6.82
7.18
-- -- -- ------------------------------------------------------------------ - - - ------- -- - - -- -- -- ----
TWINS
LIGHT
7.80
7,94
8.08
8,23
8.37
8,53
8,68
MEDIUM
16.94
16.81
16.69
16.56
16.43
16,30
16.18
HEAVY
44.81
47,05
49,29 51,53
54.45
57.14
60,00
- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
TURBOPROPS
71.14
75.26
79.60
84,23
89.06
94,26
99,73
TURBOJETS
267.28
182.79
299.09
316,46
334,64
354.15
374,73
the level of available funds for avionics in the fleet and the portion which would be able to absorb new products and/or price increases. Two assumptions were made: (1) The total equipped aircraft cost would be the dominant factor in future costs (2) Today's avionics cost share of aircraft total cost would remain constant.
The first assumption suggests that the total equipped aircraft costs will rise as a function of the growth of the value of new aircraft deliveries. This is not an unrealistic assumption since the purchaser generally looks at the aircraft and avionics as a total package -- the major portion being the aircraft which has the larg- est impact on price.
The second consideration assumes that the purchaser will continue to relate his expenditures for avionics to a percentage of the total aircraft value. Therefore, any variation in available avionics funds due to differences in the rates of the avionics complement costs increase would be translated as available for additional avionics capability. It should be noted that this money "would be available" but would only be spent on a discretionary basis by the individual purchaser who would evaluate that expenditure in terms of his demand factors. The specific estimates of funds available for avionics by aircraft class are shown in Figure VII through XIII.
In summary, the price sensitivity analysis established that the investment in avionics is generally a function of aircraft cost, although avionics costs are independent of aircraft costs and are not increasing at the same rate as aircraft costs. Furthermore the sensitivity to equipment price changes and/or new avionics requirements is inversely proportional to aircraft value, even though it is note- worthy that lighter aircraft tend to carry more avionics as a percentage of the value of the aircraft.
Finally, it was found that FAA regulatory actions have dramatic impact on rates of avionics installation and override issues of price sensitivity.
14.
FIGURE VII FORECAST AVERAGE AVIONICS EXPENDITURES BY AIRCRAFT TYPE:
LIGHT SINGLES
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985
TOTAL COSTS
(O00's OF $)
24.1 25,8 27.6 29,6 31.6 33,9
(000' s oF $)
19.5 19.3 19.2 18,9 18.7 18.4
% AVIONICS
AVAILABLE FUNDS FOR NEW AVIONICS
0.81
0.56 0.66
0.38 0,47
YEAR) 0.31
YEAR - % PROJECTED (% BASE X TOTAL COST (000'S OF $) 15.
FIGURE VIII EXPENDITURES BY AIRCRAFT TYPE:
FORECAST AVERAGE AVIONICS
SINGLES
MEDIUM-HEAVY
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985
TOTAL COSTS 39.2 42.6
47,0 50.3 54,.7 59.5
(000's or $)
12.4 12,0
13.4 12,9 12.8
% AVIONICS 13,8
AVAILABLE FUNDS FOR NEW AVIONICS
2,72 2.96 3,44 3,98
% PROJECTED YEAR) 2.07 2.25
(% BASE YEAR - X TOTAL COST (000's OF $) 16.
FIGURE IX
FORECAST AVERAGE
AVIONICS EXPENDITURES
BY AIRCRAFT
TYPE:
LIGHT TWINS
1979 1981
1983 1985
TOTAL COSTS
(000's OF $) 75,7
82,7 90,4 98,8 08,0 118,1
% AVIONICS
10.4
9.7 9.1 8.4
7,8 7,3
AVAILABLE
FUNDS FOR NEW AVIONICS
(% BASE YEAR -%
PROJECTED YEAR) 1.51
2.23 2.98 3.95 4,96
6.02
X TOTAL COST (000's OF $) 17.
FIGURE X
FORECAST AVERAGE
AVIONICS EXPENDITURES BY AIRCRAFT TYPE:
MEDIUM TWINS
1975 1977 1979
1981 1983 1985
TOTAL
COSTS
151.8
168,8
187.7
209,0 233,2
260,3
(000's OF $)
% AVIONICS 11,0 9,8 8,8 7,8 6.9 6.0
AVAILABLE
FUNDS FOR NEW AVIONICS
(% BASE YEAR - % PROJECTED YEAR)
3.18 5,57 8.07 11,0 14,4 18.4
X TOTAL COST (000's OF $) 18.
FIGURE XI FORECAST AVERAGE AVIONICS EXPENDITURES BY AIRCRAFT TYPE:
HEAVY TWIJS
1975 1977 1979
1981 1983 1985
TOTAL COSTS
235,6
247,1 258,8
271.9 185,1
(000's oF $)
% AVIONICS 19.9 19,9 19.9 20.0 20.0 20,0
AVAILABLE FUNDS FOR NEW AVIONICS
3,42 3.58
(% BASE YEAR - % PROJECTED YEAR) 5.41 5.68 5.95 3.26
X TOTAL COST (000's OF $) 19.
FIGURE XII
FORECAST AVERAGE
AVIONICS EXPENDITURES BY
AIRCRAFT TYPE:
TURBOPROPS
1977 1979 1981
1983 1985
TOTAL
COSTS 748,3
837.6 942,4 1,049,
1,175,3 1,316,7
(000's OF $)
% AVIONICS 10.0 9.5
8.9 8.4 8.0 7.5
AVAILABLE FUNDS FOR NEW AVIONICS
YEAR) 14.9 20.9 29,2 37.7 47.0 59.2
(% BASE YEAR - % PROJECTED X TOTAL COST (000's OF $) 20.
FIGURE XIII
FORECAST AVERAGE AVIONICS
EXPENDITURES
BY AIRCRAFT
TYPE:
TURBOJETS
1975 1977
1979 1981
1983 1985
TOTAL
COSTS
2,098.8
2,304,.
2,527.0 2,773.0
3,041,8
3,337,1
(000's OF $)
% AVIONICS
13.4 12.9 12.5
12.0 11,6 11.2
AVAILABLE FUNDS FOR
NEW AVIONICS
(% BASE YEAR - % PROJECTED
YEAR) -- 9. 20.2
36.0 51.7 70.0
X TOTAL COST (000's OF $) 21.
2. Demand Forecast Having established that market demand for avionics is influenced by three primary factors: o Regulatory requirements o New aircraft deliveries o Avionics cost and having established forecasts of future avionics expenditures, DSC also generated forecasts of the unit demand for avionics equipment for 1980 and 1985. Figure XIV shows the estimated average ranges of avionics installations in new aircraft during the early 1980's by class of aircraft and for the major avionics categories. All new aircraft will be equipped with at least one VHF transceiver, and aircraft other than light singles will be equipped with two transceivers. This is also the case for the ATC trans- ponder unless, with the advent of the Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) and Intermittent Positive Control (IPC), it becomes mandatory equipment for all aircraft. It is also anticipated that VOR/DME will continue to be the primary navigation system in the United States and, subsequently, it is forecast that a major protion of new aircraft will be.
be delivered with VHF navigation receivers.
Automatic direction finders will continue to have a relatively high degree of acceptance throughout the fleet.
In the remaining classes of avionics equipment, it is considered that the degree of pilot sophistication and aircraft use will be major determining factors and, therefore, the installation rates are expected to be substantially lower in the smaller aircraft categories.
Turbojets and heavy twin-engine aircraft are currently equipped with full complements of avionics and will continue to be fully equipped in the future.
In the other categories, the trend is expected to be towards expanded avionics complements, although the figure shows that light single-engine aircraft will generally continue to carry only limited navigation and communications equipment.
Based on the forecast of new aircraft deliveries shown earlier and the rate of avionics installations in new aircraft between 1980 and 1985, the forecasts prepared of the avionics demand in 1980 and in 1985 can be seen in Figure XV and Figure XVI.
22.
E.
PROGRAM RECOMMENDATIONS One of the objectives of this study was to determine areas wherein research and development by NASA would be most beneficial to the general aviation community.
This involved extensive secondary research to assess the present state-of- the-art in avionics and to determine the developments and trends which are likely to influence avionics in the 1980's.
Interviews were carried out with avionics manufacturers, the Federal Aviation Administration, industry organizations, and aviation publications as well as with independent industry experts - o To obtain opinions of the current trends and developments in general aviation avionics, and to gauge reactions to the new equipment and technologies that are appearing on the market, o and to solicit ideas of the potential areas where new or advanced technology in avionics could be most beneficial to general aviation.
In addition to our secondary research and in-person interviews, Decision Sciences Corporation utilized the Delphi approach in this program by bringing together an advisory market and technological forecasting group comprised of representatives of aircraft manufacturers, avionics manufacturers, and major service organizations directly involved in the field of general aviation.
The priorities that should be established by NASA in its R&D activities for general aviation avionics is based on DSC's forecasts of market need and desirability, coupled with our panel's opinions and interviews with pilots, aircraft owners, and other industry representatives.
Having evaluated the current technological state-of-the-art in the five major functional areas, DSC recommends that NASA R&D efforts are most urgently required in the area of displays.
The panel arrangement using the "T" layout constitutes the basic framework for avionics and instrumentation organization in general aviation aircraft. This layout, however, was devised almost 15 years ago by the FAA under considerably different circumstances and considerations. Although avionics and instruments have proliferated considerably since then, no coordinated industry study has been undertaken in this area.
In the opinion of DSC, NASA is in a unique position to under- take the necessary human factors and related studies to 23.
FIGURE XIV
ESTIMATED RANGE OF AVIONICS
INSTALLED IN NEW AIRCRAFT
1980-1985 TIME FRAME
(% OF AIRCRAFT EQUIPPED)
MEDIUM- MEDIUM-
TYPE OF EQUIPMENT
LIGHT HEAVY LIGHT HEAVY
SINGLES SINGLES TWINS TWINS TURBOJETS
VHF COM 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
VHF COM 2 5-7% 60-653 80-85% 100% 100%
100%
75-80% 90% 100%
TRANSPONDER* 40-45%
100%
100% 100%
70-80% 100%
VHF NAV 1
100% 100%
5% 60-65% 75-85%
NAV 2
VHF
90-95% 95%
55-65% 75-80%
35-45%
ADF
90-95% 100%
45-50% 55-60%
3-5%
DME
90-95% 100%
45-50% 55-60%
3-5%
R/NAV, V/NAV
100%
5-8% 10-15% 65-70%
2-3%
RADAR ALTIMETER
45-55% 20-25%
70-75%
STABILITY AUGMENTATION
85-90% 100%
2-4% 30-35% 60-65%
AUTOPILOT
75-80% 100%
9-12% 35-45%
2-4%
FLIGHT DIRECTOR
100%
4-6% 35-40% 50-60%
< 1%
WEATHER RADAR
REQUIRED IN
DABS TRANSPONDER WILL NOT BE
*IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ALL AIRCRAFT.
FIGURE XV
FORECAST OF
AVIONICS DEMAND - 1980
(BASED ON DSC MEDIUM AIRCRAFT FORECAST)
15-
000's
OF UNITS
10_
5- -
VHF TRANS- VHF ADF DME R/NAV, RADIO SAS AUTO- FLIGHT WEATHER COMI PONDER NAV V/NAV ALT. PILOT DIRECTOR RAD4R 10P FIGURE XVI
FORECAST
OF
AVIONICS
DEMAND
- 1985
(BASED ON DSC MEDIUM AIRCRAFT FORECAST)
000's
OF UN ITS VHF TRANS- VHF ADF /E R/NAV, RADIO SAS AUTO- FLIGHT WEATHER COM PONDER NAV V/NAV ALT.
PILOT DIRECTOR RADAR
1&2
1&2
optimize the organization of avionics and instrumentation in the cockpit. Furthermore, it would require an independent like NASA to carry out the study to make recommendations agency on panel design acceptable to all of general aviation.
DSC's ranking order of priority of the major functional areas for R&D funding is shown in Figure XVII.
Having established the priority areas of funding, DSC studied the desired sophistication of the various systems and equipment that could be made available to general aviation through technology advances. However, in general aviation, accelerated much a question of the the degree of sophistication is not so incorporated, but very much a function technology that should be greatly emphasized of the cost of the equipment. This point was in our interviews with pilots, manufacturers, and industry representatives.
to the functional specifications and accuracies of In regard the trend in general aviation avionics during the equipment, towards TSO'd equip- the past few years has been increasingly ment. It is felt that any new equipment that is developed should meet the minimum performance and quality control stand- perform- ards defined by the Technical Standard Orders. Further ance standards that should be targeted for in new equipment are in the Minimum Operational Characteristics developed by the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics and in ARINC Equipment Characteristics. A matrix of the desirable features that should be incorporated in new general aviation avionics systems is shown in Figure XVIII.
Built-in Test Equipment test equipment is a desirable feature to have, but it Built in is felt that the cost increment would not be justifiable in single-engine and light twin piston aircraft. During the course of the interviews conducted with pilots, their main concern was not for new navigation, communications or flight control systems, and easier to but rather for equipment that was more reliable complaint was that it was always so difficult maintain. A major failure, and that too to determine the cause of equipment to be serviced two the same piece of equipment had frequently, It was before being satisfactorily repaired.
or three times be developed to ground testing equipment suggested that automatic resolve this problem. This type of equipment is being used by Force, but at a price the air carriers and in the U. S. Air that is prohibitive in general aviation. The need, therefore, at a price is to develop automatic ground testing equipment its use in general aviation avionics service.
that would enable 27.
FIGURE XVII
RANKING
OF
PRIORITY
FOR
NASA
R&D
FUNDING
CATEGORY
OF
AVIONICS
EQUIPMENT
RANK
COMMUNICATIONS
NAVIGATION
INSTRUMENTATION
FLIGHT
CONTROL
DISPLAYS
28.
Failure Detection and Warning Systems Failure detection and warning systems are of prime import- ance in avionics equipment.
Reliable and efficient in-line monitoring is considered the most effective method of failure detection, but the method that is used is not as significant as the fact that there must be some kind of accurate failure detection and warning system.
Redundancy and Fail Mode Redundancy is another feature that is almost mandatory in general aviation avionics systems.
The means by which this is achieved depends primarily on the cost that can be supported by the aircraft owner/operator.
The recommendations on redundancy and fail mode are also shown in Figure XVIII.
OVERALL RECOMMENDATION, TARGETED PRICES, AND RELIABILITY GOALS There are two general recommendations not related to specific equipment: o The development of an integrated navigation system which would accept a variety of inputs on a plug-in module basis, e.g., VOR/DME and/or Omega and/or VLF and/or inertial, etc.
o The development of a low-cost ($5,000-$10,000) self- contained navigation system. Derivations of INS were considered, but it was unknown to what extent the cost of these could be reduced to a level acceptable to general aviation.
The final ranking of priority for areas of funding for NASA R&D in general aviation avionics and the mean target prices that the program should aim for are shown in Figure XIX. The figures in parentheses indicate the ranges of target prices that are proposed.
The equipment and systems shown in this figure exclude the products currently being developed in other major funded programs, e.g., microwave landing systems, and areas of duplication, e.g., CRT displays. No target prices are given for radar altimeters and automatic altitude sensing and reporting equipment for the high performance aircraft categories as this equipment is considered to be*available to these aircraft today. It is also considered that air data systems in 1-3 place single engine piston aircraft are not a high priority area for specific research and development efforts.
29.
XVIII FIGURE
DESIRABLE FEATURES IN 1980's AVIONICS FOR
R&D FUNDING
USER
AIRCRAFT CATEGORY
FEATURE
S.E. PISTON S.E. PISTON MULTI-ENGINE
1-3 PLACE 4+ PLACE PISTON TURBOPROP TURBOJET
BUILT-IN TEST
EQUIPMENT NO - DEVELOP NO -
DEVELOP YES
YES YES
BETTER GROUND BETTER GROUND
TESTING TESTING
EQUIPMENT EQUIPMENT
FAILURE
DETECTION AND
WARNING SYSTEMS
YES YES
YES , YES
YES
REDUNDANCY, ACTIVE
OR
STANDBY
STANDBY STANDBY
STANDBY/ACTIVE ACTIVE
ACTIVE
FAIL MODE, OPERATIONAL
OR
PASSIVE
PASSIVE PASSIVE
PASSIVE/ OPERATIONAL
OPERATIONAL
OPERATIONAL
FIGURE XIX FINAL RANKING OF PRIORITY FOR NASA R&D FUNDING AND TARGET PRICES FOR GENERAL AVIATION ACCEPTANCE (Excluding Products Related to Current Major Funded Programs and Areas of Duplication) AIRCRAFT CATEGORIES SINGLE-ENG. SINGLE-ENG.
MULTI- EQUIPMENT PISTON PISTON ENGINE 1-3 PLACE 4+ PLACE PISTON TURBOPROP TURBOJET INTEGRATED FUNCTIONEGRATED MULTI M $600 $750 $2,000 $4,000 $5,000 DISPLAYS (250-1,500) (500-1,500) (1,000-5,000) (3,000-7,000) (3,000-15,000) $400 $500 $1,300 RADAR ALTIMETER (250-500) (250-1,000) (500-1,500) ENGINE MONITOR- $400 $500 $800 $2,000 $2,500 ING SYSTEM (300-2,500) (300-5,000) (500-5,000) (700-5,000) (2,000-5,000) CLEAR AIR $200 $400 $750 $2,000 $5,000 TURBULENCE (150-1,000) (150-2,000) (600-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-8,000) DETECTOR PROXIMITY $500 $500 $1,000 $2,000 $2,500 WARNING (250-1,000) (250-1,500) (250-3,000) (750-5,000) (750-5,000) INDICATOR VLF AND/OR OMEGA $1,250 $1,500 $3,500 $8,000 $15,000 NAVIGATION (500-2,000) (500-2,500) (2,500-8,000) (5,000-10,000) (5,000-25,000) AUTOMATIC ALTI- $500 $500 $750 TUDE SENSING (250-1,000) (250-1,000) (500-1,500) AND REPORTING WEATHER RADAR $1,500 $3,500 $5,000 $6,500 $ 7,500 (5,000-15,000) (2,500-10,000) (5,000-15,000) (1,000-5,000) (2,500-10,000) (INCLUDING RNAV/VNAV/TNAV $500/$750/ $1,200/$1,500/ $1,750/$2,500/ $3,000/$6,000/ $3,000/$6,000/ $1,000 $2,000 $3,500 $8,000 $8,000 AIR DATA SYSTEM $500 $1,500 $2,500 $3,500 (200-800) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-3,000) (2,000-10,000) 31.
As reliability is of critical concern to avionics users, it is considered very important that reliability goals should be established for the products recommended for NASA R&D. In this measure of reliability is hours MTBF (mean time case, the common and the reliability goals for the 10 recommended between failure) avionics products are shown in Figure XX.
32.
FIGURE XX RELIABILITY GOALS FOR THE 10 HIGHEST RANKED AVIONICS PRODUCTS (MTBF) In Hours AIRCRAFT CATEGORIES SINGLE-ENG. SINGLE-ENG.
MULTI- EQUIPMENT PISTON PISTON ENGINE 1-3 PLACE 4+ PLACE PISTON TURBOPROP TURBOJET INTEGRATED MULTI 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,500 2,500 FUNCTION (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (500-5,000) (500-5,000) DISPLAYS 1,500 1,500 1,500 RADAR ALTIMETER (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) ENGINE MONITOR- 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,500 2,500 ING SYSTEM (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,500-5,000) (1,500-5,000) CLEAR AIR 2,000 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,000 TURBULENCE (1,000-3,000) (1,000-3,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) DETECTOR PROXIMITY 1,000 1,500 1,500 2,000 2,500 WARNING (500-3,000) (500-5,000) (500-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-10,000) INDICATOR VLF AND/OR OMEGA 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 NAVIGATION (1,000-2,000) (1,000-2,000) (1,000-2,000) (500-3,000) (500-3,000) AUTOMATIC ALTI-000 2,000 TUDE SENSING 1,000 1,000 2,000 AND REPORTING (500-3,000) (500-5,000) (500-5,000) WEATHER RADAR 1,500 1,500 1,500 2,000 3,500 ILM MODULE) (500-2,000) (500-2,000) (500-2,000) (1,000-5,000) (2,000-5,000) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 RNAV/VNAV/TNAV (500-5,000) (500-5,000) (500-5,000) (500-5,000) (500-5,000) AIR DATA SYSTEM 1,500 2,000 2,000 3,500 (500-2,000) (1,000-5,000) (1,000-5,000) (2,000-5,000) 33.