An In-time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System​

System - Wide Safety

An In - time Aviation Safety

Management System

Concept of Operations and

Modernization of the

National Airspace System

This material is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States.

AIAA SCITECH 2025

DA - 03: Digital Avionics II https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/armd/aosp/sws/ January 10 Paul Krois, Ph.D Senior Technical Consultant – Aviation Safety System - Wide Safety Project Airspace Operations and Safety Program This material is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States

Future Air Transportation System Credit: FAA

Future Concepts

FAA

NASA

2040 2025 https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/Charting - Aviations - Future - Operations - in - ICN_0.pdf U.S. Future Visions shown.

https://skyforall.directus.app/assets/0b3957f5 - e224 - 44a5 - 922b - f688fc0ba8a1.pdf Not shown - International future air transportation system documents

Visions of Future Transformational National Airspace System Airspace Modernization circa 2040 circa 2050 Today

ARMD Strategic Thrust Alignment

https://www.nasa.gov/aeroresearch/strategy https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/24962/

Future Airspace and Safety

Airspace Modernization Automated in - time safety Integrated predictive risk Assured adaptive in - time

Thrust 5 2040

monitoring and alerting services mitigation across domains safety management Efficient & effective verification & Systems - level assurance for Methods to assure

Thrust 6 2040

validation of automated systems complex architectures non - deterministic systems

FAA Representative Transformations of the NAS

Integrated Safety Operations Infrastructure Management Collaboration Among Diverse Ubiquitous Services Tailored Safety Processes Service Providers Fully Integrated Information System Resiliency Interoperability Environment System Evolves On - Pace Agile Systems and Services In - Time Safety Assurance with Technology Federal Aviation Administration, “Charting Aviation’s Future: NASA and collaborative partnerships are helping to enable each of these transformations Operations in an Info - Centric National Airspace System,” 2021.

FAA Representative Transformations of the NAS

Integrated Safety Operations Infrastructure Management Collaboration Among Diverse Ubiquitous Services Tailored Safety Processes Service Providers Fully Integrated Information System Resiliency Interoperability Environment System Evolves On - Pace Agile Systems and Services In - Time Safety Assurance with Technology Federal Aviation Administration, “Charting Aviation’s Future: NASA and collaborative partnerships are helping to enable each of these transformations Operations in an Info - Centric National Airspace System,” 2021.

FAA Representative Transformations of the NAS

Airspace Modernization

Integrated Safety

Operations Infrastructure

Management

Collaboration

Standards, flight rules, and services

Tailored Safety

Ubiquitous Among Diverse

tailored to meet the needs of diverse

Service Services

Processes

Providers operations in all airspace.

Fully Integrated System Information

Interoperability

Diverse services will interoperate safely.

Resiliency Environment

System Evolves Continuous modeling, monitoring, and

In - Time Safety

Agile Systems On - Pace with

verification will provide in - time safety

and Services

Assurance

Technology assurance and alerting.

Federal Aviation Administration, “Charting Aviation’s Future: NASA and collaborative partnerships are helping to enable each of these transformations Operations in an Info - Centric National Airspace System,” 2021.

ICAO – Safety Management System

International Civil Aviation Organization, "Safety Management, Standards and Recommended nd Practices - Annex 19," in Convention on International Civil Aviation, 2 Edition, 2016 Safety Management System Risk Safety Safety Safety Policy Management Assurance Promotion Safety Training & Hazard Performance Broad Safety Education Identification Management Objectives Change Management Safety Risk Safety Data Analysis Controls Communication Responsibility Continuous & Improvement Accountability

FAA Policy for Safety Risk Management and Safety Assurance

Safety Risk Management Safety Assurance System Analysis Ensure Effectiveness of Controls Hazard Identification Ensure Safety Data Meet Organization Objectives Risk Assessment Development of Risk Controls

Progression of Safety Intelligence

Unknown Risk

Predictive Safety

Proactive Safety

Reactive Safety

Hazard S S S S 4 5 6 7 New Corrective S S S 1 2 3 actions ASAP Safe S S S S 4 5 6 7 FOQA t t t t t t t t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 end Safety Reports Causal Factors Leading Indicators, Weak Signals Precursors, Anomalies, & Trends MORE DATA LESS DATA Credit: NASA More data volume, complexity, and types

I n - time A viation S afety M anagement S ystem (IASMS)

• In - time • Effective Enabled by Implementable IASMS For proactive & To Monitor, • Tailorable Services, through Objectives for Assess , Mitigate predictive safety • Interoperable Functions , Scalable and Integrated for in - time risk intelligence for • Scalable Capabilities Interoperable Safety management and operational and and tailored safety • Assured System - Wide Management Assure safety design safety processes Architectures • Teaming • Value Credit: NASA (adapted FAA graphic)

Design and Operational Safety – Identifying R&D Needs

DESIGN SAFETY

OPERATIONAL SAFETY

Autonomy V&V Roadmap IASMS Roadmap IASMS Autonomy V&V Technology Roadmap v2.0 Roadmap (~FY30) v2.0 (~FY30) NASA/Boeing Publishes FSF Autonomy Publishes V&V Roadmap IASMS v1.0 (Mar.

Technology ’23) Roadmap v1.0 (Apr.

Autonomy ’23) V&V Industry Workshop FSF IASMS hosted Industry at Boeing Workshop (FY22) hosted at NASA (Jan. ’23) FAA Autonomy FAA, “National Policy: Safety Risk Roadmap Management Policy, Order 8040.4C,” 2023.

New Challenges, New Research Opportunities

Legacy Aviation

Future NAS

IASMS

IASMS

Development of new SMS Modernization of Capabilities and Processes for Existing SMS Processes and Emerging Operations Capabilities Helping Transform the Future of Air Transportation System ... Safely • Interoperability and other challenges of legacy operations (today) integrated with new and emergent operations (future), • Complex automated (today) and increasingly autonomous, collaborative (future) aircraft and traffic management systems, • Developing SFCs and advance how safety management and assurance is done (today) for safety intelligence including anticipated/forecasted advancements in AI - based data analytics (future) Credit: NASA

Paul Krois, Ph.D.

paul.krois@nasa.gov